Downtown San Anselmo building with offices above in 2010. Image by the author.

Unless something major happens at the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), San Anselmo will likely need to build around 833 new homes between now and 2030, increasing its housing stock by almost 16 percent. While rezoning single-family zones and seeing new apartments have caused major heartburn in other towns, San Anselmo actually has a wealth of space to fit it all in without the fuss – if it’s willing to dig into its past for the solution.

Background: why the need?

Every 8 years, California’s Department of Housing and Community Development tells its various regions how many homes they will need to build over the next 8 years, and the regional councils of government divvy up the total to its various municipalities and counties using an internal methodology. In the Bay Area, that duty falls to the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), which is still drafting its methodology but is getting close to final. This whole process is called the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA, pronounced “REE-na”).

This year, the goals are significantly higher than in past years because of state legislation intended to ease the state’s critical housing shortage, and the state has been empowered to punish cities that don’t meet their allocation. Since cities don’t build housing anymore, so the goal is more to zone for enough new homes that at least some of them get built by developers. According to YIMBY Law, that extra is probably around 30 percent more:

No Net Loss and HCD call for a 5-30% buffer, but that doesn’t take into account likelihood of a site’s development or the likelihood of achieving maximum density on a given site.
— YIMBY Law (@Yimby_Law) January 18, 2021

So, even though San Anselmo’s draft allocation from ABAG is 833 homes [1], it will probably need to zone for around 1,166. Even if ABAG’s methodology changes it probably won’t get many fewer homes than this.

The assignment would kickstart it to just 1.8 percent annual growth per year. The next-fastest year of housing growth in the town was in 1985, when it grew by 1.1 percent. 833 homes is more than double the total amount of housing it has approved in the past 40 years (413 homes [2]) and more than triple the amount actually grown (273 homes [3, 4]).

In other words, San Anselmo hasn’t grown much in the past few decades, so it – along with the rest of the Bay Area – needs to make up for lost time. This is a housing shortage, after all, and this growth assignment is slow compared to more core parts of the region. San Francisco is asked to grow by 2.3 percent per year and San Mateo by 2 percent per year. San Anselmo’s neighbors in Ross Valley – Fairfax and Ross – are expected to grow by 1.7 and 1.4 percent per year, respectively. Marin needs to grow, but not as fast as other parts of the region.

There’s lots of space – if you know where to look

Other jurisdictions have abolished single-family detached zoning. Judging by how many apartments are mixed in with single-family homes around downtown, this would keep with tradition for San Anselmo to do. But this is often politically fraught for a variety of reasons so may be unpalatable for the town council. Luckily, the big win for San Anselmo would be going back to homes over shops.

The oldest commercial zones in San Anselmo are located around old Interurban stations: downtown, of course, but also neighborhood commercial around Lansdale, Yolanda, and Pastori stations out towards Fairfax and Highland station (located at the town line along Red Hill Avenue) towards San Rafael. Most buildings built around that time blend ground-floor commercial with upper-floor homes and offices in 2 or 3-story structures.

Newer zones are called “Highway Commercial,” and they include the areas along Greenfield, Red Hill Avenue, and Sir Francis Drake. These are mostly single-story buildings with large areas set aside for parking. Redhill Shopping Center and United Market epitomize the design. Newer buildings (as in, 50 to 60 years old) downtown are also built like this.

In total, there are some 47 acres of commercial properties in the town and 41 acres have no homes at all.

An example of what FAR 2.0 looks like in practice, from New York City’s Office of Planning. The specific R5D zoning rules referenced aren’t what I mean to rezone San Anselmo’s commercial areas to. Instead, all of the buildings shown here are roughly… — An example of what FAR 2.0 looks like in practice, from New York City’s Office of Planning. The specific R5D zoning rules referenced aren’t what I mean to rezone San Anselmo’s commercial areas to. Instead, all of the buildings shown here are roughly in line with what the density would be: urban, but small-town urban. Image from NYC Planning [5].

If just the parcels without homes were rezoned for low rise mixed-use buildings – around 2-4 stories, depending on the location – they could accommodate another 3,400 homes. If San Anselmo included parcels with homes, allowing for redevelopment or subdivision, the town could accommodate another 400, moving the total to 3,800 new homes. In other words, San Anselmo has physical space for over 3 times more homes than it needs. At 1.8 percent annual growth, it could accommodate 25 years of growth without touching its single-family zones.

The parcels that could easily be rezoned to allow for more homes are marked in blue. It’s also easy to see all of the higher-density housing scattered throughout the town already. “Not developable” properties are those that are too far from a bus li… — The parcels that could easily be rezoned to allow for more homes are marked in blue. It’s also easy to see all of the higher-density housing scattered throughout the town already. “Not developable” properties are those that are too far from a bus line or too isolated to be workable as significant new housing development. Image by the author, data from MarinMap.org.

(This all assumes an average apartment size of 800 square feet, a floor-area ratio of 2.0, some ground floors dedicated to retail, and 75 percent rentable housing space in each building, so excluding hallways and common areas.)

Applying the same calculations to Fairfax yields 2,040 spots for new homes compared to its need for 686 homes. Ross, however, can only accommodate a mere 81 compared to its need for 153 homes, so it will need to use other parcels to meet its needs, including the 4 parcels that already have homes on them. That would give it a total of 173 new homes, so for subsequent cycles, it will need to start thinking of other ways to accommodate infill by rezoning single-family areas or partner with San Anselmo to offload its needs.

Looking broadly at Ross Valley’s parcels, the dearth of options in Ross is apparent, as is the dominance of single-family zoning dotted with multifamily, especially in older parts of the area. Fairfax and Ross both have two gigantic parcels zoned co… — Looking broadly at Ross Valley’s parcels, the dearth of options in Ross is apparent, as is the dominance of single-family zoning dotted with multifamily, especially in older parts of the area. Fairfax and Ross both have two gigantic parcels zoned commercial that are probably unfit for the kind of housing density described here. Image by the author, data from MarinMap.org.

New homes mean new neighbors and new opportunities

These mandates seem big, but they present a huge opportunity for the town. Downtown San Anselmo has struggled for years and the pandemic has only made things harder. The Sir Francis Drake and Redwood corridors have been unwalkable and unpleasant since the 1940s, and the slow death of Redwood’s median trees has made them even worse. On top of new buildings to frame and shade these places, the 833 homes likely means around 2,200 new neighbors. That’s a lot more people living life in San Anselmo, many of whom will be literally right on top of the local shops that make the town unique, supporting the town’s character and economy in the process.

This sort of rezoning presents an opportunity for the town to return to its roots and expand the walkable character of its town center to other neighborhoods, inviting new neighbors to work on this town project. There are significant challenges, of course, from traffic and parking to schools, infrastructure, and various risks. But these are not insurmountable. The current, crushingly high cost of a home is a clear and present equity nightmare. The town has a chance to play a role in making a more equitable Bay Area while also becoming a better version of itself. It should not pass it up.